Equity research NASDAQ: LULU
lululemon athletica inc.
Draft — being built in public
What you can see is verified: seven fiscal years taken from filings with the SEC and checked against the 10-K. What is missing is the part I write — thesis, assumptions, risks, conclusions — and it shows as pending until I write it. No section of this page was drafted by an AI pretending to be an analyst.
The report is published as a draft on purpose: you can see the skeleton and the verified data, and watch the rest arrive.
01One-page summary
Pending — I write this
This section is my judgement, so it stays empty until I write it. It is not filled in by an AI.
02What it does and how it makes money
Pending — I write this
This section is my judgement, so it stays empty until I write it. It is not filled in by an AI.
Registration facts
- SEC CIK
- 0001397187
- Listed on
- Nasdaq · LULU
- SIC industry
- Apparel & Other Finishd Prods of Fabrics & Similar Matl (2300)
- Incorporated in
- DE
- Reporting currency
- USD
- Fiscal year ends
- Feb 1, 2026 (FY2025)
- Most recent filing
- SCHEDULE 13D/A · Sep 3, 2026
Straight from the EDGAR submissions file. It is registration data, not an opinion about the business.
03Industry and competition
Pending — I write this
This section is my judgement, so it stays empty until I write it. It is not filled in by an AI.
Comparables
The candidate list and the one-line “why it is here” come from the report’s working file. The multiples and the decision to keep or drop each peer are pending: they need a date and a source, and that is my call.
Multiples as of: pending
| Company | Why it is a candidate | In? | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LULU | lululemon athletica inc. | — | — | — | — | 4.9% | 19.9% | The company this report is about. Growth and margin come from the verified FY2025; the multiples need a price and a date. | In |
| NKE | Nike | — | — | — | — | — | — | líder global de la categoría; mismo canal (DTC + mayoreo) y mismo cliente | undecided |
| ONON | On Holding | — | — | — | — | — | — | crecimiento premium en calzado/ropa deportiva; múltiplo de crecimiento | undecided |
| DECK | Deckers (HOKA, UGG) | — | — | — | — | — | — | marca premium con FCF alto y sin deuda; comparable de rentabilidad | undecided |
| ADS.DE | adidas | — | — | — | — | — | — | segundo jugador global; referencia europea (IFRS, ajustar arrendamientos) | undecided |
| UAA | Under Armour | — | — | — | — | — | — | caso bear: marca athleisure que perdió el premium | undecided |
| ATZ.TO | Aritzia | — | — | — | — | — | — | canadiense, moda premium para mujer, misma base de tiendas; IFRS | undecided |
| GPS | Gap Inc. (Athleta) | — | — | — | — | — | — | dueño de Athleta, competidor directo en EE. UU.; múltiplo de retail maduro | undecided |
04Financial performance, five years
The verified numbers
Seven fiscal years as the company reported them. Millions of US dollars, except shares (millions) and percentages.
Income statement, cash flow and balance sheet
| US$ millions | FY 2019Feb 2, 2020 | FY 2020Jan 31, 2021 | FY 2021Jan 30, 2022 | FY 2022Jan 29, 2023 | FY 2023Jan 28, 2024 | FY 2024Feb 2, 2025 | FY 2025Feb 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,979 | 4,402 | 6,257 | 8,111 | 9,619 | 10,588 | 11,103 |
| Revenue growth | — | 10.6 % | 42.1 % | 29.6 % | 18.6 % | 10.1 % | 4.9 % |
| Gross profit | 2,223 | 2,464 | 3,609 | 4,492 | 5,609 | 6,271 | 6,284 |
| Gross margin | 55.9 % | 56.0 % | 57.7 % | 55.4 % | 58.3 % | 59.2 % | 56.6 % |
| EBITDA | 1,051 | 1,006 | 1,558 | 1,620 | 2,512 | 2,952 | 2,707 |
| EBITDA margin | 26.4 % | 22.8 % | 24.9 % | 20.0 % | 26.1 % | 27.9 % | 24.4 % |
| Operating income | 889 | 820 | 1,333 | 1,328 | 2,133 | 2,506 | 2,211 |
| Net income | 646 | 589 | 975 | 855 | 1,550 | 1,815 | 1,579 |
| Net margin | 16.2 % | 13.4 % | 15.6 % | 10.5 % | 16.1 % | 17.1 % | 14.2 % |
| Depreciation and amortisation | 162 | 186 | 224 | 292 | 379 | 447 | 496 |
| Capital expenditure | 283 | 229 | 395 | 639 | 652 | 689 | 681 |
| Cash from operations | 669 | 803 | 1,389 | 967 | 2,296 | 2,273 | 1,603 |
| Free cash flow | 386 | 574 | 995 | 328 | 1,644 | 1,584 | 922 |
| Free cash flow margin | 9.7 % | 13.0 % | 15.9 % | 4.0 % | 17.1 % | 15.0 % | 8.3 % |
| Share-based compensation | 46 | 51 | 69 | 78 | 94 | 90 | 62 |
| Cash and equivalents | 1,094 | 1,151 | 1,260 | 1,155 | 2,244 | 1,984 | 1,807 |
| Financial debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Operating lease liabilities | 740 | 799 | 881 | 1,070 | 1,403 | 1,576 | 1,798 |
| Shareholders’ equity | 1,952 | 2,559 | 2,740 | 3,149 | 4,232 | 4,324 | 4,962 |
| Diluted shares (millions) | 131.0 | 130.9 | 130.3 | 128.0 | 127.1 | 123.9 | 119.1 |
| Share buybacks | 173 | 64 | 813 | 444 | 559 | 1,637 | 1,178 |
The company labels the year by the fiscal year it started: the year ended 1 Feb 2026 is its “fiscal 2025”. Rows are always labelled by their closing date.
Source of every figure above
SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts, generated with scripts/edgar-facts.mjs and stored in the report folder. Each row keeps the XBRL tag it came from and the accession number of the filing that reports it. EBITDA is operating income plus depreciation and amortisation; free cash flow is cash from operations minus capital expenditure — both computed here, not taken from the company.
Verification against the 10-K The latest fiscal year was compared figure by figure against the 10-K and the difference is zero on every line. The comparison, with its links to the EDGAR viewer, is published in the report folder.
SEC EDGAR companyfacts ↗ The report folder in the public repository ↗
Latest quarter
Captured, not published: I have not verified it yet
Captured from the 10-Q of September 3, 2026 by the AI that prepares the data. I publish it once I have checked it against the document myself: on this site no figure captured by an AI goes up before I sign it.
Captured by: IA (agente finanzas)
The AI only copied the facts out of the filings; what they mean is my reading, and I have not written it yet.
05Levers and management
Pending — I write this
This section is my judgement, so it stays empty until I write it. It is not filled in by an AI.
- Total stores ✓
- Total comparable sales ✓
- Comparable sales, Americas ✓
- Revenue by region (Americas, China, rest of world) ✓
- Revenue by channel (stores, e-commerce, other) ✓
- Inventory days ✓
The company’s guidance
Captured, not published: I have not verified it yet
Captured from the 8-K of September 3, 2026 by the AI that prepares the data. I publish it once I have checked it against the document myself: on this site no figure captured by an AI goes up before I sign it.
Captured by: IA (agente finanzas)
The AI only copied the facts out of the filings; what they mean is my reading, and I have not written it yet.
Corporate governance
Captured, not published: I have not verified it yet
Captured from the company’s filings, as of September 8, 2026, by the AI that prepares the data. I publish it once I have checked it against the documents myself: on this site no figure captured by an AI goes up before I sign it.
Captured by: IA (agente finanzas)
The AI only copied the facts out of the filings; what they mean is my reading, and I have not written it yet.
06Risks
Pending — I write this
This section is my judgement, so it stays empty until I write it. It is not filled in by an AI.
07Valuation
A DCF you can move
Lab mode
These are not my assumptions — mine are still pending. So the controls start from a single mechanical rule: the last reported fiscal year, held flat for five years, using the verified figures. Move them and the model recalculates in your browser. Nothing here is a forecast.
Implied price per share
$220.54
- Enterprise value
- 23,031
- US$ millions
- Equity value
- 24,421
- US$ millions
- Terminal value as % of EV
- 72.1 %
- Implied EV/EBITDA exit multiple
- 7.4x
- Diluted shares
- 110.7
- as of Aug 28, 2026 (10-Q cover)
Sanity checks
- Some scenarios have no probability yet
Sensitivity: WACC × terminal growth
Implied price per share. The highlighted cell is your current setting. Swipe sideways on a phone.
| WACC \ g | 1.00% | 1.25% | 1.50% | 1.75% | 2.00% | 2.25% | 2.50% | 2.75% | 3.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $227 | $234 | $240 | $247 | $255 | $264 | $273 | $283 | $294 |
| 8.5% | $213 | $218 | $224 | $230 | $236 | $244 | $251 | $259 | $268 |
| 9.0% | $201 | $205 | $210 | $215 | $221 | $226 | $233 | $240 | $247 |
| 9.5% | $189 | $193 | $198 | $202 | $207 | $212 | $217 | $223 | $229 |
| 10.0% | $180 | $183 | $187 | $191 | $195 | $199 | $204 | $209 | $214 |
Range
Pending — I write this
This section is my judgement, so it stays empty until I write it. It is not filled in by an AI.
Bear, base and bull need three things from me: what changes in each one, its probability, and why. Until then the segmented control below is off and only the base case runs.
The lab bar is the lowest and highest implied price in the sensitivity grid above with your current settings. Bear, base and bull load the overrides I write in the model file; while those are empty the buttons stay off.
Where each starting value comes from
| Control | Start | Comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, years 1–2 | 4.9% | Last reported fiscal year · FY2025 11,102.6 / 10,588.1 − 1 |
| Revenue growth, years 3–5 | 4.9% | Last reported fiscal year · FY2025 11,102.6 / 10,588.1 − 1 |
| EBITDA margin | 24.4% | Last reported fiscal year · FY2025 2,706.8 / 11,102.6 |
| WACC (discount rate) | 9.0% | Risk-free rate + beta × equity risk premium 4.78 + 1.00 × 4.23 |
| Terminal growth (g) | 2.0% | Convention, not a forecast 2.0 % |
| D&A, % of revenue | 4.5% | Last reported fiscal year · FY2025 496.2 / 11,102.6 |
| Capex, % of revenue | 6.1% | Last reported fiscal year · FY2025 680.8 / 11,102.6 |
| Change in working capital, % of change in revenue | 0.0% | No data in the verified file 0 |
| Tax rate | 29.5% | Last reported fiscal year · FY2025 659.8 / 2,239 |
Risk-free rate and equity risk premium have a source and a date in the model file. Beta starts at 1.00 — the market average by definition, not Lululemon’s beta, which is one of the things I still have to look up.
Terminal growth starts at 2 %, the long-run inflation target in US dollars. It is a convention so the calculator has a starting point.
08Scenarios
Bear, base and bull need three things from me: what changes in each one, its probability, and why. Until then the segmented control below is off and only the base case runs.
| Probability | Why | |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | pending | pending |
| Base | pending | pending |
| Bull | pending | pending |
09Conclusion and what would change my mind
Pending — I write this
This section is my judgement, so it stays empty until I write it. It is not filled in by an AI.
10Appendix
Sources
Numbered so any figure in the report can point at one. “Retrieved” is the day the document was consulted.
-
Form 10-K, año fiscal cerrado el 2026-02-01 ↗
Primary filing · 10-K · Mar 17, 2026 · 0001397187-26-000020 · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
-
Form 10-K, año fiscal cerrado el 2025-02-02 ↗
Primary filing · 10-K · Mar 27, 2025 · 0001397187-25-000013 · Retrieved Aug 21, 2026
-
Form 10-K, año fiscal cerrado el 2024-01-28 ↗
Primary filing · 10-K · Mar 21, 2024 · 0001397187-24-000010 · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
-
Form 10-Q, trimestre cerrado el 2026-08-02 (2T fiscal 2026) ↗
Primary filing · 10-Q · Sep 3, 2026 · 0001397187-26-000127 · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
-
Form 10-Q, trimestre cerrado el 2026-05-03 (1T fiscal 2026) ↗
Primary filing · 10-Q · Jun 4, 2026 · 0001397187-26-000078 · Retrieved Aug 21, 2026
-
Form 10-Q, trimestre cerrado el 2025-11-02 ↗
Primary filing · 10-Q · Dec 11, 2025 · 0001397187-25-000055 · Retrieved Aug 21, 2026
-
Form 10-Q, trimestre cerrado el 2025-08-03 ↗
Primary filing · 10-Q · Sep 4, 2025 · 0001397187-25-000039 · Retrieved Aug 21, 2026
-
Form 10-Q, trimestre cerrado el 2025-05-04 ↗
Primary filing · 10-Q · Jun 5, 2025 · 0001397187-25-000027 · Retrieved Aug 21, 2026
-
8-K Item 2.02, Ex. 99.1: resultados del 2T fiscal 2026 y guía revisada del año ↗
Primary filing · 8-K · Sep 3, 2026 · 0001397187-26-000126 · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
-
8-K Item 2.02, resultados 1T fiscal 2026 (press release Ex. 99.1) ↗
Primary filing · 8-K · Jun 4, 2026 · 0001397187-26-000077 · Retrieved Aug 21, 2026
-
8-K Ex. 99.1: resultados del 4T y del año fiscal 2025 ↗
Primary filing · 8-K · Mar 17, 2026 · 0001397187-26-000019 · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
-
8-K Item 2.02, resultados 3T fiscal 2025 (incluye 5.02 cambio de directivos) ↗
Primary filing · 8-K · Dec 11, 2025 · 0001397187-25-000054 · Retrieved Aug 21, 2026
-
8-K Ex. 99.1: resultados del 4T y del año fiscal 2024 ↗
Primary filing · 8-K · Mar 27, 2025 · 0001397187-25-000012 · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
-
8-K Ex. 99.1: resultados del 4T y del año fiscal 2023 ↗
Primary filing · 8-K · Mar 21, 2024 · 0001397187-24-000009 · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
-
8-K Ex. 99.1: resultados del 4T y del año fiscal 2022 ↗
Primary filing · 8-K · Mar 28, 2023 · 0001397187-23-000011 · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
-
8-K Ex. 99.1: resultados del 4T y del año fiscal 2021 ↗
Primary filing · 8-K · Mar 29, 2022 · 0001397187-22-000013 · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
-
8-K Item 8.01: salida del Chief AI & Technology Officer ↗
Primary filing · 8-K · Aug 13, 2026 · 0001397187-26-000120 · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
-
8-K Items 5.02/5.07: resultados de la junta anual de accionistas del 2026-06-24 ↗
Primary filing · 8-K · Jun 26, 2026 · 0001397187-26-000088 · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
-
Schedule 13D/A No. 25 de Dennis J. (Chip) Wilson y entidades relacionadas ↗
Primary filing · SCHEDULE 13D/A · Sep 3, 2026 · 0001193125-26-382473 · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
-
DEFC14A 2026 de la empresa (proxy definitivo en contienda: consejo, compensación e incentivos) ↗
Primary filing · DEFC14A · May 18, 2026 · 0001213900-26-058095 · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
-
DEFC14A 2026 presentado por Dennis J. Wilson (el lado del fundador en la contienda de poderes) ↗
Primary filing · DEFC14A · Apr 10, 2026 · 0001193125-26-151437 · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
-
SEC EDGAR XBRL companyfacts (base de data/financials.json) ↗
Primary filing · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
-
Primary filing · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
-
Página de relación con inversionistas de lululemon ↗
Company · Retrieved Aug 21, 2026
-
Treasury 10 años (DGS10), FRED ↗
Macro data · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
4.78 % al 2026-09-04 (último dato publicado; el 2026-08-19 era 4.65 %)
-
Damodaran, Data Update 2 for 2026: ERP implícita EE. UU. ↗
Macro data · Retrieved Aug 21, 2026
4.23 % (inicio de 2026)
-
Yahoo Finance, cierres diarios de LULU (la misma fuente que usa /api/history del sitio) ↗
Market data · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
Último cierre 103.19 USD el 2026-09-08. Rango de 52 semanas: 97.99 - 225.98. El 2026-09-04, primer día tras los resultados del 2T, cerró en 100.61 desde 121.77.
-
TODO (Jaime): transcripción de la llamada de resultados del 2T fiscal 2026 (3-sep-2026, 16:30 ET)
Secondary · Pending — I have to add this one
-
TODO (Jaime): beta de 5 años de LULU a la fecha del análisis
Market data · Pending — I have to add this one
-
TODO (Jaime): múltiplos de los comparables con fecha (stockanalysis.com por ticker)
Market data · Pending — I have to add this one
Assumptions and their reasons
| Assumption | Value | Reason (written by me) |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | pending | Pending — I write this |
| EBITDA margin | pending | Pending — I write this |
| D&A, % of revenue | pending | Pending — I write this |
| Capex, % of revenue | pending | Pending — I write this |
| Change in working capital, % of change in revenue | pending | Pending — I write this |
| Tax rate | pending | Pending — I write this |
| SBC | pending | Pending — I write this |
| Terminal value | pending | Pending — I write this |
| WACC | pending | Pending — I write this. rf = FRED DGS10 4.78 % al 2026-09-04, último dato publicado (consultado 2026-09-08; antes 4.65 % al 2026-08-19). ERP = Damodaran implícita EE. UU. de inicio de 2026, 4.23 % (consultada 2026-08-21; Damodaran la actualiza cada mes: si Jaime quiere una más fresca, hay que bajarla y anotarla aquí). Beta, pesos y WACC: ESCRIBE AQUÍ POR QUÉ (Jaime) |
How AI was used in this report
What Claude (AI) did
Downloaded the XBRL data from SEC EDGAR (10-K and 10-Q) with scripts/edgar-facts.mjs, organised it into the report’s financials file, checked the latest 10-K figure by figure, prepared the empty templates, wrote the DCF engine with its tests, and built this page and its charts.
What I do
I read the 10-K (business, risk factors, management’s discussion) and the latest earnings call, take my own notes, set every assumption in the model with a written reason, pick and justify the comparables, and write the thesis, the scenarios, the risks and the conclusion. No assumption and no line of thesis in this report was written by an AI.
The report folder in the public repository ↗
Changelog
- Share count corrected in the lab. The equity comes from the 2 August 2026 balance sheet of the Q2 FY2026 10-Q, and it is now divided by the shares on that same filing’s cover (110.7 million, including the 5.1 million exchangeable shares) instead of the FY2025 weighted average of 119.1 million, a year of buybacks earlier. The lab’s starting implied price moves from 205.05 to 220.54 USD; enterprise value and equity do not change.
- Data refreshed to version 0.2 after the Q2 FY2026 filings of 3 September: the quarter itself, the cut full-year guidance, the operating KPIs for FY2021–FY2025 (stores, comparable sales, revenue by region and channel, inventory), net cash from the latest 10-Q and an updated risk-free rate. Ten new primary sources. Still no thesis and no assumptions.
- Report page published as a draft: verified financials, charts, the interactive DCF in lab mode, sources and appendix.
- Seven fiscal years pulled from SEC EDGAR and checked against the FY2025 10-K; DCF engine written with tests; empty templates prepared.
Educational, not advice
Educational, not investment advice. This is my work in progress as a student, published so the process can be examined. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything, and market prices shown here are delayed. Verify every figure at its source before deciding anything.
Educational only, not a recommendation. Prices are delayed and may differ from your broker’s; verify at the source before deciding anything.